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central-banking

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Inflation-forecasting pipeline that combines ARIMA diagnostics in Stata with LSTM tuning in Python. It covers CPI data preparation, exploratory analysis, model selection, residual checks, and dynamic multi-step forecasts, then benchmarks econometric and deep-learning approaches with MSE, MAE, and R^2 plus clear visuals.

  • Updated Jan 29, 2026
  • Python

End-to-End Python replication of Camara & Aublin's (2025) monetary spillover analysis methodology. Implements rotational-angle decomposition, Bayesian VAR with Normal-Wishart priors, sign restrictions for shock identification, and a full robustness suite for international macroeconomic analysis.

  • Updated Sep 19, 2025
  • Jupyter Notebook

Ternary Logic requires that every financial transaction, every trade, every loan, and every policy decision generate a permanent, legally binding, court-admissible record of its justification before execution. And if justification is uncertain, the system simply refuses to proceed until a human with proper authority resolves the uncertainty.

  • Updated Feb 20, 2026
  • HTML

End-to-End Python replication of Iadisernia & Camassa’s LLM macroeconomic forecasting methodology (ICAIF 2025). Implements: 2,368 synthetic economist profiles, 120,000+ GPT-4o forecasts across 50 European Central Bank (ECB) SPF rounds, a rigorous ablation study with Monte Carlo & binomial hypothesis testing.

  • Updated Nov 6, 2025
  • Jupyter Notebook

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