We develop forecasting methods to improve decision-making on high-stakes issues. First-generation forecasting research—spearheaded by FRI Chief Scientist Philip Tetlock and coauthors—focused on establishing a rigorous standard for prediction accuracy. The next generation of work aims to channel this approach into real-world relevance. We work with policymakers and nonprofit organizations to design practical forecasting tools, and test them in large experiments.
Our research centers on:
- Producing high-quality forecasting questions about complex, long-run topics;
- Novel methods for resolving unresolvable questions;
- Testing the robustness of forecasting techniques across different domains and contexts; and
- Using forecasting tools to help organizations make better decisions.
