diff --git a/internal/update/update_unix.go b/internal/update/update_unix.go
index c7ae759..e54721e 100644
--- a/internal/update/update_unix.go
+++ b/internal/update/update_unix.go
@@ -112,6 +112,23 @@ func unlockFile(f *os.File) error {
 
 // canReplaceFile returns true if this process can replace the file at the
 // provided location.
+//
+// On Unix, rename(2) replacement is governed by the containing directory
+// rather than the target file mode, so validate replacement by creating a
+// temporary file in that directory.
 func canReplaceFile(path string) bool {
-	return unix.Access(path, unix.W_OK) == nil
+	dir := filepath.Dir(path)
+
+	f, err := os.CreateTemp(dir, ".fetch-update-*")
+	if err != nil {
+		return false
+	}
+
+	name := f.Name()
+	if err := f.Close(); err != nil {
+		_ = os.Remove(name)
+		return false
+	}
+
+	return os.Remove(name) == nil
 }
diff --git a/internal/update/update_unix_test.go b/internal/update/update_unix_test.go
index cc7c73f..10d9dd7 100644
--- a/internal/update/update_unix_test.go
+++ b/internal/update/update_unix_test.go
@@ -66,6 +66,22 @@ func TestUnpackArtifact_PathTraversal(t *testing.T) {
 	}
 }
 
+func TestCanReplaceFile_ReadOnlyFileWritableDirectory(t *testing.T) {
+	dir := t.TempDir()
+	path := filepath.Join(dir, "fetch")
+
+	if err := os.WriteFile(path, []byte("binary"), 0755); err != nil {
+		t.Fatalf("WriteFile: %v", err)
+	}
+	if err := os.Chmod(path, 0555); err != nil {
+		t.Fatalf("Chmod: %v", err)
+	}
+
+	if !canReplaceFile(path) {
+		t.Fatalf("canReplaceFile(%q) = false, want true", path)
+	}
+}
+
 func createTarGz(t *testing.T, filename string, content []byte) []byte {
 	t.Helper()
 	var buf bytes.Buffer