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Description
PyRenew's multi-signal model framework currently has one latent infection process: HierarchicalInfections, which decomposes building_multisignal_models.qmd.
However, a common use case has no subpopulation structure: two jurisdiction-level aggregate signals (e.g., hospital admissions + ED visits) observe the same underlying infection process through different delay distributions and ascertainment rates. Using HierarchicalInfections with subpop_fractions=[1.0] for this case is misspecified: the deviation process samples ~N nuisance parameters (one per timepoint) that are all forced to zero by the sum-to-zero constraint. This creates serious non-identifiability.
Add class SharedInfecions with a single
Mathematical form:
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$\log \mathcal{R}(t) \sim \text{TemporalProcess}$ (e.g., AR(1), RandomWalk) $I(t) = \mathcal{R}(t) \sum_\tau I(t-\tau) , g(\tau)$ - Each observation:
$\mu_k(t) = \alpha_k \sum_s I(t-s) , \pi_k(s)$